宏观审慎监管与商业银行系统性风险——基于16家上市商业银行的实证分析

Macro-Prudential Regulation and Systemic Risk of Commercial Banks

  • 摘要: 本文基于2009—2018年我国16家商业银行的相关数据,通过建立动态面板模型,实证分析了宏观审慎监管对商业银行系统性风险的影响。研究结果表明:实施宏观审慎监管能在一定程度上降低商业银行系统性风险,但不同政策工具对商业银行系统性风险的影响存在差异;更高的资本充足率、拨备覆盖率和贷款损失准备充足率对商业银行系统性风险有明显的遏制作用,而流动性比例对商业银行系统性风险的影响效应不明显;宏观审慎监管工具对国有商业银行系统性风险的遏制作用明显大于其他银行。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2018, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of macro-prudential supervision on the systemic risk of commercial banks by establishing a dynamic panel model. The results show that the implementation of macro-prudential regulation can alleviate the accumulation of systemic risks to a certain extent, and different policy tools have different impacts on the risk, such as higher capital adequacy ratio, provision coverage ratio and loan loss reserve adequacy ratio have a deterrent effect on the risk, but the impact of liquidity ratio on the risk is not significant. At the same time, macro-prudential policy tools have a greater effect on containing state-owned commercial banks' systemic risks than other banks.

     

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