王德诏. 新常态下城镇化对经济增长影响的实证分析——以河南省为例[J]. 《信阳师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版)》, 2019, 39(1): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-0964.2019.01.012
引用本文: 王德诏. 新常态下城镇化对经济增长影响的实证分析——以河南省为例[J]. 《信阳师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版)》, 2019, 39(1): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-0964.2019.01.012
WANG Dezhao. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on Economic Growth under the New Normal——Illustrated by the Case of Henan Province[J]. The journal of xinyang normal university (philosophy and social science edition), 2019, 39(1): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-0964.2019.01.012
Citation: WANG Dezhao. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on Economic Growth under the New Normal——Illustrated by the Case of Henan Province[J]. The journal of xinyang normal university (philosophy and social science edition), 2019, 39(1): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-0964.2019.01.012

新常态下城镇化对经济增长影响的实证分析——以河南省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on Economic Growth under the New Normal——Illustrated by the Case of Henan Province

  • 摘要: 新常态下我国经济增长和社会发展进入新阶段,新型城镇化建设是这一阶段经济发展的最大动力,通过推进城镇化建设可以释放经济活力,促进区域经济增长。文章基于1978-2015年河南省城镇化水平和人均GDP的相关数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等分析方法,实证分析了城镇化建设对河南省经济增长的影响。实证结果表明:城镇化建设在短期内对经济增长有一个较小的负向作用,但在长期内具有明显的带动作用。因此,河南省应采取措施积极推进新型城镇化建设,调整产业结构以提升城镇产业集聚发展水平,深化制度改革,以促进经济增长。

     

    Abstract: Under the new normal conditions, China's economic growth and social development have entered a new stage. The construction of new urbanization is the greatest driving force of economic development in this stage. By promoting the construction of urbanization, economic vitality can be released and regional economic growth can be promoted. Based on the data of urbanization level and per capita GDP in Henan Province from 1978 to 2015, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of urbanization on economic growth in Henan Province by using co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the urbanization construction has a small negative effect on economic growth in the short term, but it has obvious driving effect in the long term. Henan Province should actively promote the construction of new urbanization, adjust industrial structure, upgrade the level of urbanization development, and deepen institutional reform to promote economic growth.

     

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